- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds
- Date: Tuesday, July 7, 2026
- Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: Reds.TV
- Betting Odds: Philadelphia (-128) Cincinnati (+106)
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On Tuesday, the Cincinnati Reds (41-48) will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies (50-40) at the Great American Ball Park. The moneyline for this matchup shows Philadelphia at -128, while Cincinnati is positioned at +106. The total runs expected in this game is set at 8.5, with Zack Wheeler and Andrew Abbott as the starting pitchers.
The Philadelphia Phillies have been averaging 4.5 runs per game, ranking 17th in MLB. They have accumulated 402 runs with a team on-base percentage (OBP) of .303. Their collective hitting stats include 121 doubles and 120 home runs, along with 388 RBIs from 719 hits on the season, presenting a batting average of .237. The team has a slugging percentage of .404, with 787 strikeouts and 261 walks taken throughout the year.
The Phillies have compiled a team ERA of 4.12 this season, placing them 13th in the league, and their pitching staff has recorded 872 strikeouts. They have allowed 101 home runs and given up 395 runs total (14th in MLB). The team has issued 254 walks, leading to a FIP of 3.66. This year, the Phillies have allowed 789 hits (8.9 hits per 9 innings) and a total of 366 earned runs. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 3.43, complemented by a WHIP of 1.31.
Throughout the season, the Phillies have utilized 300 relievers. The bullpen has inherited 94 runners, with 36.2% of them scoring. They have earned 35 holds (27th in MLB) and faced 70 situations with runners on base, while participating in 80 high-leverage situations. The bullpen has compiled 26 saves but has missed 10 of their 36 save opportunities, resulting in a 72.2% save percentage over 73 attempted saves.
Defensively, the Phillies have converted 66.9% of balls in play into outs in their 7,194 innings, ranking them 29th overall. They tallied 2,398 putouts, 746 assists, and 44 errors, maintaining a fielding percentage of .986, which positions them 14th in MLB. They have successfully turned 47 double plays.
Zack Wheeler has pitched for 1,808 innings in his career, achieving 1,904 strikeouts and maintaining a career earned run average of 3.24 (allowing 651 earned runs). His WHIP stands at 1.128, having conceded 1,530 hits (7.6 hits per 9 innings) and 510 walks. Wheeler’s career record of 121-76 correlates with a FIP of 3.19, having faced 7,394 batters in the major leagues.
On the other hand, the Reds exhibit a team slugging percentage of .388 and are scoring an average of 4.18 runs per game, placing them 21st in MLB. They have accounted for 142 doubles, received 332 walks, and scored 372 runs. Cincinnati has hit 107 home runs this season, alongside 353 RBIs, while notching 834 strikeouts (3rd in the league) and 679 hits. Their OBP is .309 and their batting average stands at .228.
Defensively, the Reds have allowed 432 runs with a team ERA of 4.57 (with 402 earned runs allowed). They have given up 121 home runs and allow 4.91 runs per 9 innings (21st in MLB). The team holds a WHIP of 1.456 and a FIP of 4.98. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 8.10 (715 strikeouts vs. 402 walks), sitting 22nd in the league for total hits allowed with 751.
Possessing a save rate of 55.3%, the Reds have used 319 bullpen pitchers this year, with 111 of them facing high leverage situations and 103 working with runners on base. In 90 save situations, they have earned 51 holds and encountered 17 blown saves, successfully saving 21 out of 38 attempts. The relievers have a 24.6% inherited scoring rate from 142 inherited runners.
Defensively, the Reds have executed 65 double plays and maintain a .984 fielding percentage (18th in MLB). The team has achieved 735 assists, 49 errors, and 2,376 putouts throughout the season. Their defensive efficiency ratio stands at 70.3% over 7,128 innings played (12th in professional baseball).
Andrew Abbott holds a career record of 33-27, along with a 3.51 ERA, averaging 8.3 hits per nine innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.48, confronting 2,144 batters thus far. With a WHIP of 1.281 and a FIP of 3.5, Abbott has given up 198 earned runs and allowed 467 hits while collecting 456 strikeouts across 508 innings pitched.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB contest against the spread or moneyline?
Prediction: Choose Cincinnati (+106)
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