- Game: Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres
- Date: Friday, July 10, 2026
- Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
- Broadcast: Padres.TV
- Betting Odds: Toronto (-196), San Diego (+162)
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This Friday, the San Diego Padres (46-46) will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays (44-49) at Petco Park. The initial betting odds suggest Toronto is favored at -196, while San Diego opens at +162. The total runs expected for the game is set at 8.5, with Shane Bieber and JP Sears designated as the starting pitchers.
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit 145 doubles this season and launched 93 home runs. Their slugging percentage stands at .383, with a total of 682 strikeouts compared to 254 walks. Averaging 4.0 runs per game, they rank 28th overall in the league, accumulating 360 RBIs and 761 total hits with a batting average of .244. They have scored 376 runs and maintain an on-base percentage (OBP) of .305.
The Blue Jays exhibit a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.52 and a collective WHIP of 1.30. Their pitchers have allowed 104 home runs, contributing to a total of 411 runs (14th in MLB). Toronto’s staff has given up 741 hits, averaging 8.1 hits per nine innings, resulting in 374 earned runs. Overall, the Blue Jays post a season ERA of 4.08, ranking 12th in the league, while striking out 825 batters. They have issued 327 walks, with a cumulative FIP of 4.04 this season.
The Blue Jays’ bullpen has achieved a 70.0% save rate, entering 102 save scenarios, successfully converting 28 saves while failing on 12. Having inherited 149 base runners, they allowed 26.8% to score. In high-leverage situations, they have appeared 109 times and distributed 343 relief appearances this season, with 59 holds (7th in MLB).
With 2,474 putouts, 770 assists, and 60 errors, the Blue Jays’ fielding percentage is .982, placing them 27th in professional baseball. They have executed 66 double plays, and converted 69.6% of balls in play into outs over 7,422 innings, ranking 18th in the league.
Shane Bieber has logged 896 innings and earned a total of 1,004 strikeouts throughout his MLB career. His career record stands at 66-35, with a FIP of 3.27 and an ERA of 3.32 (331 ERs allowed). Bieber has issued 202 walks and permitted 806 hits (8.1 per nine innings) in his career with a WHIP of 1.125.
The Padres currently hold a slugging percentage of .373, scoring an average of 3.93 runs per game (30th in the league). They have recorded 137 doubles, walked 302 times, and scored a total of 362 runs. Additionally, the Padres have hit 96 home runs and registered 354 RBIs. With 773 strikeouts (16th in MLB) and 681 hits, San Diego holds a .301 OBP and a batting average of .226 this season.
San Diego’s pitching staff has a WHIP of 1.338 and a team FIP of 4.24. Their K/BB ratio is 8.30 (749 strikeouts to 330 walks), ranking them 17th in terms of hits allowed with 757. They have surrendered 100 home runs while allowing 4.47 runs per nine innings (12th in MLB), leading to a total of 403 runs and a 4.21 team ERA (380 earned runs allowed).
So far, the Padres have made 96 save attempts, resulting in 57 holds and 10 blown saves. They called on their relievers in 37 save situations, successfully converting 27 of those. Their inherited runners’ scoring rate stands at 31.6% out of 158, with 102 high-leverage situations and 92 appearances with base runners. Their save percentage is at 73.0%, placing them 7th in baseball, utilizing 309 relief pitchers this season.
San Diego has completed 82 double plays, with a fielding percentage of .990, ranking 2nd in MLB. The Padres have recorded 809 assists, 34 errors, and 2,438 putouts this year. Over 7,314 innings played, their defensive efficiency stands at 69.8% (ranked 16th in MLB).
Throughout his career, JP Sears has allowed 561 hits while racking up 480 strikeouts across 573 innings. With a career record of 33-42, he holds a 4.54 ERA and permits an average of 8.8 hits per nine innings. Sears has given up 289 earned runs, maintaining a WHIP of 1.272 and a FIP of 4.5, with a K/BB ratio of 2.86 against 2,431 batters.
Who will prevail in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Recommendation: Back Toronto (-196)
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