- Matchup: Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
- Event Date: Tuesday, September 30, 2025
- Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
- Broadcast: ESPN
- Betting Odds: Detroit (+162) / Cleveland (-196)
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The Detroit Tigers (87-75) are heading to Progressive Field on Tuesday to face the Cleveland Guardians (88-74) in the first game of the ALWC. Current betting odds position Detroit at -150, with Cleveland opening at +125. The total runs over/under is set at 6.5. The starting pitchers are Tarik Skubal and Gavin Williams.
This season, Detroit boasts a slugging percentage of .413, with 1,454 strikeouts against 511 walks. They have accumulated 724 RBIs and recorded 1,346 hits, resulting in a batting average of .247. As a unit, the Tigers have hit 244 doubles and 198 home runs, amassing 758 runs scored and a .316 on-base percentage. The Tigers average 4.7 runs per game, ranking them 11th in MLB.
Detroit’s pitching staff exhibits a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.25. They have given up 187 home runs and allowed a total of 691 runs this season (16th overall). With 1,309 hits (8.2 hits per 9 innings) and 630 earned runs conceded, the Tigers currently carry a team ERA of 3.95, placing them 16th in the league. They have struck out 1,375 batters while walking 485, with a FIP of 4.05 for the season.
The Tigers’ bullpen has a save conversion rate of 64.5%, having entered 142 save opportunities. They have inherited 258 base runners this year, allowing 28.7% to score. The relievers have been called into action with runners on base 182 times and have had 140 high-leverage appearances. Detroit has deployed 508 relief pitchers throughout the season, recording 75 holds (26th in MLB) and converting 40 saves out of 62 opportunities.
Defensively, the Tigers have converted 70.2% of balls in play into outs across 12,927 innings, ranking 13th in the majors. They have committed 79 errors and achieved a fielding percentage of .986, which stands at 14th in professional baseball, along with a total of 128 double plays.
Skubal has pitched 766 innings, striking out 889 batters with a career ERA of 3.08 (allowing 262 earned runs) and a WHIP of 1.026. He has surrendered 614 hits (7.2 hits per 9 innings) and issued 172 walks. With a win-loss record of 54-37, Skubal has faced 3,056 batters, holding a FIP of 3.03.
Meanwhile, Cleveland has recorded 168 home runs and 621 RBIs this season. They have hit 243 doubles, drawn 494 walks, and scored a total of 643 runs. The Guardians maintain a .296 on-base percentage with a team batting average of .226 and a slugging percentage of .373, averaging 3.97 runs per game (28th in MLB). They’ve struck out 1,344 times (18th overall) and logged 1,199 hits.
Cleveland’s pitching staff boasts a WHIP of 1.261 and a FIP of 3.95 for the season. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 8.60 (1,381 strikeouts versus 527 walks), ranking 11th in MLB for total hits allowed with 1,291. They have conceded 169 home runs while allowing 4.05 runs per 9 innings (6th in baseball), resulting in a team ERA of 3.70 (649 total runs allowed, with 593 being earned).
The Guardians’ bullpen has inherited runners scoring at a rate of 32.5% out of 209 opportunities. Their relief pitchers have participated in 192 high-leverage situations as well as 151 occasions with runners on base. With 184 save chances, Cleveland’s bullpen has achieved 112 holds and suffered 22 blown saves. They rank 6th in the league with a save conversion rate of 68.1%, deploying 531 relief pitchers throughout the season. They have recorded 47 saves out of 69 chances.
Defensively, Cleveland has a 69.8% efficiency rate over 12,978 innings (17th in the majors). The Guardians have turned 121 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .983 (27th in professional baseball). They have registered 1,330 assists, committed 99 errors, and completed 4,326 putouts this season.
Williams (18-20 career record) posts a 3.54 ERA, allowing 7.4 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.19, having faced 1,381 batters in his career. He has given up 128 earned runs with a WHIP of 1.292 and a FIP of 3.5. Over 325 innings, Williams has allowed 268 hits while recording 333 strikeouts.
Who will take the win in tonight’s high-stakes MLB matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Prediction: Bet on Detroit Tigers (+162)
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