Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays Prediction for 10/12/2025 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

• Matchup: Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays
• Date: Sunday, October 12, 2025
• Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Broadcast: FOX
• Betting Odds: Seattle (+125) Toronto (-150)

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This Sunday, the Seattle Mariners (90-72) are set to travel to Rogers Centre to face off against the Toronto Blue Jays (94-68) in the opening game of the ALCS. Current odds show the Mariners at +125 and the Blue Jays starting at -150. The over/under for the game is set at 7. Expected pitchers for the matchup are Luis Castillo and Kevin Gausman.

As a team, the Seattle Mariners average 4.7 runs per game, placing them 10th in the league. They have amassed a total of 766 runs and feature an on-base percentage of .320. The Mariners have also recorded 234 doubles and hit 238 home runs. With 734 RBIs and 1,345 hits throughout the season, their batting average stands at .244. Seattle’s slugging percentage is .420, with 1,446 strikeouts and 544 walks.

Seattle’s pitching staff boasts an earned run average (ERA) of 3.87, ranking 13th in the league, and has struck out 1,426 batters. They have allowed 192 home runs and have given up a total of 694 runs (17th in the league). The Mariners have walked 454 batters, and their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) stands at 3.98 for the season. With 1,331 hits allowed (averaging 8.2 hits per 9 innings), they have conceded 629 earned runs. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.14, and they hold a WHIP of 1.22.

The Mariners’ bullpen has converted 62.3% of save opportunities, having had 159 such situations. They have inherited 147 runners this season, with 25.2% of those scoring. The relief corps has faced runners on base 132 times and been in 216 high-leverage situations, deploying 550 pitchers in relief thus far. The bullpen has secured 90 holds (13th in MLB) and accumulated 43 saves, missing 26 out of 69 save opportunities.

Defensively, the Seattle Mariners have tallied 4,388 putouts, along with 1,355 assists and 69 errors. Their fielding percentage stands at .988, ranking 7th in Major League Baseball, complemented by 118 double plays. The Mariners convert 70.3% of balls in play into outs during their 13,164 innings played, placing them 12th in MLB.

Pitcher Luis Castillo has logged 1,410 innings and achieved 1,493 strikeouts throughout his career. Holding a career record of 84-84, Castillo has a FIP of 3.50 after facing 5,824 batters in the majors. His ERA is 3.55 (with 557 earned runs allowed) and he maintains a WHIP of 1.178, permitting 1,208 hits (7.7 hits per 9 innings) alongside 453 walks.

For the Toronto Blue Jays, they have hit 191 home runs and driven in 771 runs this season. The team has produced 294 doubles, drawn 520 walks, and scored a total of 798 runs. The Jays’ on-base percentage is .333 with a batting average of .265, while their slugging percentage is .427, averaging 4.93 runs per game (4th in MLB). They have struck out 1,099 times (ranking 29th) with a total of 1,461 hits.

The Toronto pitching staff, on the other hand, has allowed 721 runs this year and holds an ERA of 4.18 (with 668 earned runs allowed). They have given up 209 home runs, averaging 4.51 runs per 9 innings (19th in MLB). The team WHIP is 1.273, and their collective FIP is 4.27. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is an impressive 8.90 (1,430 strikeouts against 517 walks), ranking 14th in hits allowed at 1,313 for the season.

This season, Toronto’s relievers have stepped in during 65 save opportunities, converting 42 saves for a 64.6% success rate, placing them 13th in MLB. With 570 relief appearances, their pitchers have faced high-leverage situations 156 times and runners on base 178 times. Toronto’s inherited scoring percentage stands at 27.6% from 254 inherited runners, and they have achieved 96 holds alongside 23 blown saves out of 168 save situations.

Across 12,942 innings, the Blue Jays’ defensive efficiency is at 70.0% (14th in professional baseball). The team has recorded 118 double plays, with a fielding percentage of .985 (18th in MLB). They have supported their pitchers with 1,272 assists, 86 errors, and 4,314 putouts this season.

In Gausman’s MLB career, he has given up 1,835 hits while striking out 1,954 batters across 1,911 innings. He has allowed 810 earned runs and has a WHIP of 1.240, with a FIP of 3.8. Gausman’s strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.65, having faced 7,986 batters overall. He has a career record of 112-113 and an ERA of 3.81, yielding 8.6 hits per nine innings.

Who will triumph in today’s MLB battle? Will it be against the spread or moneyline?

Prediction: Choose Toronto (-150)