- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners
- Date: Thursday, October 16, 2025
- Venue: T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
- Broadcast: FS1
- Betting Odds/Point Spread: Toronto (+110) Seattle (-130)
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This Thursday, T-Mobile Park will host a thrilling showdown in Game 4 of the ALCS as the Seattle Mariners (90-72) square off against the Toronto Blue Jays (94-68). The line for this matchup has placed Toronto at +110 and Seattle at -130, with the total runs set at 7.5. Max Scherzer is scheduled to pitch for the Blue Jays, while Luis Castillo will take the mound for the Mariners.
The Toronto Blue Jays have been productive at the plate, averaging 4.9 runs per game, ranking them 4th in the MLB. They’ve scored a total of 798 runs and maintain an impressive on-base percentage of .333. The Blue Jays have hit 294 doubles and launched 191 home runs this season, accumulating 771 RBIs and 1,461 total hits, boasting a team batting average of .265. With a slugging percentage of .427, they’ve struck out 1,099 times while drawing 520 walks.
With a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.77, the Blue Jays’ pitching staff has a WHIP of 1.27. They’ve allowed 209 home runs and 721 total runs this season, ranking 19th in the league. Toronto has given up 1,313 hits (8.2 per 9 innings) along with 668 earned runs, ending the season with a 4.18 ERA (19th in MLB) and striking out 1,430 batters while walking 517. Their FIP stands at 4.27 for the year.
In high leverage situations, Blue Jays pitchers have faced opponents with runners on base 178 times, earning 96 holds (10th in MLB). The bullpen has a save percentage of 64.6%, having converted 42 saves out of 168 opportunities and blowing 23 chances. This season, they have inherited 254 runners, of which 27.6% scored. Overall, 570 relief pitchers have taken the mound for Toronto.
Defensively, the Blue Jays have converted 70.0% of balls in play into outs across 12,942 innings, putting them 14th in professional baseball. They’ve recorded 4,314 putouts, 1,272 assists, and 86 errors, resulting in a .985 fielding percentage which ranks 18th in MLB, along with a total of 118 double plays.
Max Scherzer has pitched 2,963 innings throughout his career, striking out 3,489 batters with a career ERA of 3.22 (1,059 earned runs allowed) and a WHIP of 1.084. He’s given up 2,433 hits (7.4 per nine innings) and issued 779 walks. Scherzer’s career record stands at 221-117, and he has faced 11,987 hitters, achieving a FIP of 3.17.
The Seattle Mariners boast a team slugging percentage of .420, averaging 4.73 runs per game, ranking 10th in the league. They’ve tallied 234 doubles, earned 544 walks, and scored 766 runs. Seattle has hit 238 home runs this season while accumulating 734 RBIs. They’ve struck out 1,446 times (6th in MLB) and amassed 1,345 hits. Their on-base percentage is .320, with a batting average of .244 for the season.
This season, the Seattle pitching staff has allowed 694 runs, recording a team ERA of 3.87 (629 earned runs). They’ve given up 192 home runs and permit 4.27 runs per 9 innings (13th in MLB), with a WHIP of 1.221 and a season FIP of 3.98. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 8.80, resulting in 1,426 strikeouts against 454 walks. The Mariners rank 15th in total hits allowed with 1,331.
Seattle has generated 90 holds and recorded 26 blown saves out of 159 save situations. Their bullpen has been called upon 69 times during save opportunities, successfully converting 43 saves. Mariners’ relief pitchers have participated in 216 high leverage situations, facing runners on base 132 times. Their inherited score rate stands at 25.2% from 147 inherited runners. The Mariners sit 19th in MLB with a save percentage of 62.3%, dispatching 550 relief pitchers throughout the season.
In 13,164 innings, the Mariners have achieved a defensive efficiency of 70.3% (12th in professional baseball). They have executed 118 double plays and hold a .988 fielding percentage, ranking 7th in MLB. Seattle has compiled 1,355 assists, committed 69 errors, and recorded 4,388 putouts this year.
Career-wise, Luis Castillo has given up 1,208 base hits while achieving 1,493 strikeouts over 1,410 innings pitched. With a win-loss record of 84-84, he has posted a 3.55 ERA, allowing 7.7 hits per nine innings, and 557 earned runs, maintaining a WHIP of 1.178 and a FIP of 3.5. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.30, facing 5,824 batters during his career.
Which team will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Prediction: Take Toronto (+110)
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