- Matchup: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
- Scheduled Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
- Venue: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- Broadcast: CBS
- Betting Line: Patriots +7.0
- Over/Under Total: 48
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This Sunday, Highmark Stadium will be the battleground as the Buffalo Bills (3-0) take on the New England Patriots (1-2). The Patriots enter this game as 7-point underdogs according to Vegas lines. The total score is projected at 48 points.
The New England Patriots will look to improve their season record of 1-2. In their previous match, they faced off against the Jacksonville Jaguars, resulting in a disappointing 35-6 loss. Drake Maye completed 14 of 25 passes for 199 yards, finishing with a quarterback rating of 48.6 and two interceptions. TreVeyon Henderson was the leading rusher for the team, carrying the ball 8 times for just 23 yards, averaging 2.9 yards per carry. Mack Hollins was a standout receiver, achieving 87 yards on 6 receptions, averaging 14.5 yards each. The Patriots attempted 26 rushes for a total of 83 yards, averaging 3.2 yards per carry. Overall, they executed 57 plays, garnering 317 total yards. Defensively, New England allowed 19 completions on 29 attempts, giving up 178 yards at a completion rate of 65.5%. On the ground, the Patriots permitted 137 yards over 30 attempts, averaging 4.6 yards per rush.
Defensively, the Patriots rank 6th in the NFL, allowing 17.0 points per game. Opponents are averaging 4.3 yards per rush, totaling 108.3 rushing yards against them each game. In the air, New England has allowed 510 passing yards, ranking them 2nd in the league, surrendering 170.0 yards per game with a completion percentage of 63.4%. Overall, they allow 278.3 total yards per contest, placing them 5th in the league. So far this season, they have given up 4 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns, accumulating 325 rushing yards over 3 games.
The Bills approach this game with a solid 3-0 record this season. In their last outing, they triumphed over the Los Angeles Chargers, winning 24-16. Josh Allen threw for 204 yards, completing 16 out of 26 attempts, but recorded 2 interceptions, resulting in a quarterback rating of 54. D.J. Moore led Buffalo’s receiving corps with 6 catches for 67 yards, averaging 11.2 yards per catch. James Cook was impressive on the ground, rushing 24 times for 154 yards and averaging 6.4 yards per attempt. The Bills executed a total of 350 yards from 59 plays, averaging 5.9 yards per play. Their running game produced 5.3 yards per carry, totaling 176 yards on 33 attempts. On defense, they allowed the Chargers 131 rushing yards on 28 attempts (4.7 yards per carry), and against the pass, they surrendered a completion rate of 58.8%, yielding 217 yards on 20 of 34 attempts.
For this season, the Buffalo Bills average 401.7 yards per game, ranking them 4th in the league. They average 155.0 rushing yards per game with a total of 465 rushing yards. They have recorded 2 interceptions and 3 lost fumbles, achieving 37 first downs thus far. Buffalo’s offense has committed 219 yards worth of penalties, placing them 5th in the league in helping the opponent. In terms of passing, the Bills have accumulated 740 yards, averaging 246.7 passing yards per game, which ranks them 9th overall. They are currently the highest-scoring team in the NFL, averaging 33.7 points per game.
On defense, the Bills have allowed 7 passing touchdowns and an average of 254.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 27th in the league. They have also surrendered a total of 321 rushing yards, yielding 107.0 yards per game with 2 rushing touchdowns allowed. This year, the defense has accrued 3 takeaways (2 forced fumbles and 1 interception), allowing a total of 78 points so far. The Bills have participated in 199 defensive plays, placing them 27th in the league, and they currently permit 26.0 points per game, ranking them 22nd.
Who will emerge victorious in the Patriots vs. Bills game against the spread?
Prediction: Bet on the Patriots +7.0
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