- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians
- Scheduled For: Saturday, October 17, 2026
- Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
- Broadcast: TBS
- Betting Odds: Tampa Bay (-112) Cleveland (-108)
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The Cleveland Guardians (85-77) will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays (98-64) at Progressive Field this Saturday in Game 5 of the ALCS. The current betting odds favor the Rays at -112, with the Guardians slightly trailing at -108. The total runs projected for this game is set at 7, featuring starting pitchers Drew Rasmussen and Foster Griffin.
This season, the Rays have recorded a total of 230 doubles and 169 home runs. With a slugging percentage of .402, they have faced 1,145 strikeouts against 514 walks. The Tampa Bay offense scores an average of 4.5 runs per game, placing them 12th in Major League Baseball (MLB). They have accumulated 700 RBIs and 1,405 hits, maintaining a team batting average of .258 and an on-base percentage (OBP) of .326.
The Rays’ pitching staff boasts a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.23, complemented by a WHIP of 1.14. Rays pitchers have allowed 201 home runs and a total of 650 runs (6th in MLB). They’ve permitted 1,235 hits (7.7 per 9 innings) and 594 earned runs, achieving a team earned run average (ERA) of 3.70 (7th in MLB), with 1,322 strikeouts. They have issued 409 walks, resulting in a FIP of 4.04 for the team this season.
This season, Tampa Bay has called upon 522 relievers. The bullpen has inherited 192 base runners and allowed 32.3% to score. They have amassed 115 holds (2nd in the league) and faced runners on base during 134 outings in high-leverage situations. With 58 saves and 20 blown saves from 78 chances, the Rays’ bullpen holds a 74.4% save rate and have entered 194 save scenarios.
In the field, the Rays convert 72.3% of balls in play into outs across 12,987 innings, leading MLB. They have registered 4,329 putouts, 1,279 assists, and 92 errors, resulting in a fielding percentage of .984 (21st in MLB), along with 100 double plays.
Drew Rasmussen has pitched 632 innings and struck out 602 batters throughout his professional career. His win-loss record stands at 46-22, with a FIP of 2.79. In his MLB tenure, Rasmussen has faced 2,509 batters, posted an ERA of 2.83 (199 earned runs), and holds a WHIP of 1.025. He has allowed 497 hits (7.1 hits per 9 innings) and issued 151 walks.
This season, the Guardians have hit 162 home runs and recorded 650 RBIs. They’ve achieved 249 doubles, with 574 walks and 678 runs scored. The Cleveland Guardians maintain an OBP of .316 and a team batting average of .239. Their slugging percentage is .380, scoring an average of 4.19 runs per game (24th in MLB). They have struck out 1,271 times (26th in MLB) and compiled 1,291 hits.
As a team, the Guardians have a WHIP of 1.264, with a FIP of 3.82. They rank 10th in MLB for total hits allowed (1,286) and have surrendered 667 runs this year, along with a team ERA of 3.77 (602 earned runs). Their strikeout-to-walk ratio stands at 9.60 (1,530 strikeouts to 530 walks), having permitted 175 home runs and averaging 4.18 runs allowed per 9 innings (8th in MLB).
The Guardians’ bullpen has an inherited scoring rate of 28.4% from 261 inherited runners. They have entered high-leverage situations 178 times, with 166 innings pitched with runners on base. With 183 save opportunities this year, they’ve notched 117 holds along with 18 blown saves. Ranking 6th in MLB, their save rate is 71.9%, with 555 relief appearances thus far.
Defensively, the Cleveland Guardians have turned 108 double plays and achieved a fielding percentage of .985 (17th in MLB). They have 1,262 assists, 86 errors, and 4,313 putouts over 12,939 innings, achieving a defensive efficiency of 69.1% (23rd in MLB).
Foster Griffin has a career record of 13-3, holding a 3.28 ERA while allowing 7.6 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio is 3.46, and he has faced 562 hitters over his MLB career. Griffin has permitted 50 earned runs, maintains a WHIP of 1.101, and has a FIP of 3.2, giving up 116 hits while accumulating 121 strikeouts in 137 innings pitched.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB showdown against the spread or moneyline?
Prediction: Choose Tampa Bay (-112)
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