- Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
- UFC Rio
- Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Saturday, October 11, 2025
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Julia Polastri will face off against Karolina Kowalkiewicz at UFC Rio on Saturday, October 11, 2025. The opening betting lines place Polastri at -450 and Kowalkiewicz at +350.
Julia “Psycho” Polastri seeks to enhance her professional record of 13 wins and 5 losses. At 27 years old, she weighs in at 115 lbs and stands 5’2″. As an orthodox fighter, she boasts a reach of 63 inches. Karolina Kowalkiewicz, at 39, stands 5’3″ and also weighs in at 115 lbs. With a professional record of 16 wins and 9 losses, Kowalkiewicz also fights in the orthodox stance and has a reach of 64 inches. When it comes to significant strikes, Polastri averages 5.62 per minute, slightly ahead of Kowalkiewicz’s 5.54. Polastri connects with 55% of her significant strikes, while Kowalkiewicz has a connection rate of 43%. Defensively, Polastri absorbs 5.37 significant strikes per minute and manages to defend against 56%, compared to Kowalkiewicz, who absorbs 5.51 and defends 57% of her opponents’ strikes.
| UFC Rio | Julia Polastri | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -450 | +350 |
| Record | 13-5-0 | 16-9-0 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:49 | 13:15 |
| Height | 5’2″ | 5’3″ |
| Weight | 115 lbs | 115 lbs |
| Reach | 63″ | 64″ |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.62 | 5.54 |
| Striking Accuracy | 55% | 43% |
In the wrestling department, Julia Polastri has the advantage, successfully taking her opponents down 0.87 times every 15 minutes, achieving an impressive 80% takedown success rate while denying 58% of all takedown attempts against her. Kowalkiewicz, however, manages takedowns on just 22% of her attempts and defends against 74% of the takedowns aimed at her. When it comes to submission attempts, Polastri leads with 0.4 submissions every 15 minutes, compared to Kowalkiewicz’s 0.2 attempts per 3 rounds.
In her most recent match, Julia Polastri faced Loopy Godinez, suffering a unanimous decision loss in round 3. Godinez successfully landed 114 out of 184 total strikes, while Polastri connected with 117 out of 186. In terms of significant strikes, Godinez scored 84 out of 150, resulting in a 56% accuracy rate, landing 71 of 135 notable strikes to the head. Polastri achieved a 57% accuracy by landing 87 of 151 significant strikes and had a head strike accuracy of 58 out of 112. Notably, an impressive 89% of both fighters’ significant strikes were made at distance.
In the last match for Karolina Kowalkiewicz, she clashed with Denise Gomes, also losing by unanimous decision in round 3. Gomes excelled with 72% accuracy on significant strikes at distance, while Kowalkiewicz managed 84% at distance. Kowalkiewicz’s overall accuracy was 46%, landing 46 of 98 significant strikes, with 16 directed at the head. Gomes scored with 73 out of 144 total significant strikes, including 30 aimed at the head. Overall, Gomes unleashed 91 total strikes, landing 91 of 166, while Kowalkiewicz landed 61 out of 115 attempts.
Key Fights to Watch on the Card
Don’t miss Charles Oliveira as he enters the Octagon against Mateusz Gamrot. Oliveira brings a record of 35-11-0 (1 NC) to the ring at 5’10” and weighs 155 lbs. With an orthodox stance, he has a reach of 74 inches. Gamrot, standing at 5’10” and weighing 155 lbs, holds a record of 25-3-0 (1 NC) and uses a southpaw stance with a 70-inch reach. In terms of wrestling, Oliveira takes opponents down 2.23 times per 15 minutes, while Gamrot leads with 5.33 takedowns per 15 minutes. Striking-wise, Oliveira lands 3.41 strikes per minute and connects with 55% of his attempts, whereas Gamrot lands 51% at a rate of 3.35 strikes per minute.
Be sure to keep an eye out for Montel Jackson as he goes head-to-head with Deiveson Figueiredo. The latter holds a record of 24-5-1, weighs in at 135 lbs, and stands 5’5″. Figueiredo, an orthodox fighter, has a reach of 68 inches. Meanwhile, Jackson stands at 5’10” and weighs the same, aiming to improve his record of 15-2-0 as a southpaw fighter with a reach of 75 inches. Figueiredo defends against 58% of takedown attempts and successfully executes 35% of his own. Jackson’s takedown success is 62%, thwarting 68% of his opponents’ takedowns. In terms of striking stats, Figueiredo absorbs 3.64 strikes per minute while landing 2.82, whereas Jackson only absorbs 1.39 strikes per minute while delivering 3.22.
Who do you think will come out on top in tonight’s UFC match against the spread?
Prediction: Back Julia Polastri (-450)
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