- Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto
- UFC Vegas 122
- Meta APEX in Las Vegas
- Saturday, October 3, 2026
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On Saturday, October 3, 2026, Ernesta Kareckaite will step into the Octagon to face Melissa Gatto at UFC Vegas 122. The initial moneyline presents Kareckaite at -101, while Gatto is listed at -115.
Known as “Heavy-Handed,” Ernesta Kareckaite boasts a professional record of 6 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw. The 28-year-old fighter weighs 125 lbs and stands 5’9″ tall with a reach of 71″. In contrast, Melissa Gatto, measuring 5’5″ and also weighing 125 lbs, brings a record of 9 wins, 3 losses, and 2 draws into the bout. Gatto is 30 years old, with a reach of 69″. In significant strikes, Kareckaite lands an impressive 7.28 strikes per minute, while Gatto connects at a rate of 3.47 strikes per minute. Kareckaite has a striking accuracy of 42%, compared to Gatto’s 49%. When it comes to defense, Kareckaite absorbs 6.47 significant strikes per minute, whereas Gatto faces less with only 2.67 strikes absorbed per minute. Kareckaite successfully defends against 49% of significant strikes aimed at her, while Gatto boasts a 54% defense rate.
| UFC Vegas 122 | Ernesta Kareckaite | Melissa Gatto |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Odds | -101 | -115 |
| Record | 6-2-1 | 9-3-2 |
| Average Fight Time | 15:00 | 12:44 |
| Height | 5’9″ | 5’5″ |
| Weight | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| Reach | 71″ | 69″ |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 7.28 | 3.47 |
| Striking Accuracy | 42% | 49% |
In terms of takedowns, Kareckaite showcases less wrestling presence, averaging just 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes. She achieves a takedown on 60% of her attempts and successfully defends against 81% of takedown attempts by opponents. Gatto, on the other hand, completes 27% of her takedown attempts and defends against 58% of those targeted at her. Regarding submission attempts, Kareckaite excels with an average of 0.8 finishes per 15 minutes, while Gatto averages 0.4.
In her latest fight, Ernesta Kareckaite faced Regina Tarin, suffering a unanimous decision defeat in round 3. Tarin landed 125 out of 250 total strikes, while Kareckaite connected with 127 of her 279 attempts. In terms of significant strikes, Tarin successfully landed 114 of 239, achieving an accuracy of 47%. She targeted Kareckaite’s head with 76 of 185 significant strikes. Kareckaite’s performance saw her land 42% of her significant strikes, connecting on 105 out of 249, with her head strikes landing at a rate of 79 out of 212; 79% of Tarin’s and 83% of Kareckaite’s strikes were registered at a distance.
In her most recent bout, Melissa Gatto contended against Dione Barbosa, ultimately losing by majority decision in round 3. Barbosa successfully landed 53% of her significant strikes from a distance, while Gatto achieved a remarkable 90% success rate in her distance strikes. Gatto landed 49% of her attempted significant strikes, totaling 33 of 67, with 14 of those targeting her opponent’s head. Barbosa’s significant strikes in that fight were 30 out of 67, with her head targeting accuracy at 19 out of 53. Regarding total strikes, Barbosa connected on 108 of 154 thrown, while Gatto managed 64 of 109.
Don’t miss the exciting matchup when Brendan Allen faces off against Christian Leroy Duncan. Allen holds a professional record of 27-7-0, weighing in at 185 lbs and standing 6’2″ tall with a reach of 75″. Duncan, also 6’2″ tall, weighs 185 lbs and has a record of 15-2-0. In takedown statistics, Allen brings down his opponents 1.52 times each 3 rounds, while Duncan averages 0.43. Allen strikes at 3.75 per minute with a striking accuracy of 52%, while Duncan connects on 57% of his strikes, averaging 4.45 per minute.
Another fight to watch is Jai Herbert versus Matheus Camilo. Camilo enters with a record of 11-3-0, weighing 155 lbs and standing 5’10” with a reach of 69″. Herbert, at 6’1″ tall, shares the 155 lbs weight class and comes in with a record of 14-6-1. In wrestling, Camilo successfully defends against 15% of takedowns and completes 53% of his attempts. Herbert manages a completion rate of 21% on his takedowns while defending 66%. Regarding striking, Camilo absorbs 3.05 strikes/min while delivering 2.22. Herbert takes 3.34 strikes/min and disperses 3.19 strikes/min.
Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s UFC encounter against the spread?
Pick: Back Ernesta Kareckaite (-101)
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