- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Friday, May 15, 2026
- Venue: PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
- Broadcast: SportsNet Pittsburgh
- Betting Odds: Philadelphia (-196) Pittsburgh (+162)
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On Friday, the Pittsburgh Pirates (24-20) will take on the Philadelphia Phillies (20-23) at PNC Park. The moneyline favors the Phillies at -196, while the Pirates are listed at +162. The game features an over/under of 8.5 runs, with Aaron Nola and Braxton Ashcraft set to start on the mound.
The Philadelphia Phillies have tallied 61 doubles and hit 51 home runs this season. With a slugging percentage of .390, they have struck out 344 times while managing to walk 127 times. With an average of 4.0 runs per game, the Phillies rank 26th in MLB. They have accumulated 170 RBIs and 339 hits, sitting at a batting average of .232 along with an on-base percentage of .299.
The Phillies exhibit a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.22 and their pitching staff has a WHIP of 1.39. The team has allowed 43 home runs and a total of 206 runs (23rd in MLB), with 407 base hits (averaging 9.6 hits per 9 innings) and 189 earned runs. The Phillies boast a team ERA of 4.44 (22nd in baseball) and have struck out 409 hitters while issuing 127 walks. Their FIP currently stands at 3.57 for the season.
The Phillies’ bullpen has achieved a save percentage of 69.2% across 27 save opportunities, securing 9 saves while failing to convert 4 out of 13 chances. This season, they’ve inherited 56 base runners, with 32.1% scoring, and have made 37 high-leverage appearances. So far, 152 relief pitchers have participated in games for the team, contributing to a total of 14 holds (27th in the league).
Defensively, the Phillies have made 1,150 putouts, 380 assists, and 20 errors, maintaining a fielding percentage of .987, which ranks 16th in MLB. Their play efficiency has led to 26 double plays, with the team converting 65.1% of balls in play into outs over 3,450 innings, placing them at 30th in professional baseball.
Aaron Nola has pitched 1,757 innings, securing 1,920 strikeouts throughout his career. With a career record of 111-92, Nola’s FIP is 3.80, and he has faced 7,222 batters in the majors. His ERA stands at 3.86 (754 earned runs allowed), with a WHIP of 1.157, yielding 1,569 hits (8.0 hits allowed per 9 innings) and 464 walks.
The Pittsburgh Pirates occupy an on-base percentage of .336 alongside a team batting average of .248 this season. They have recorded 391 strikeouts (7th in the league) and achieved 370 base hits, along with 45 home runs and 205 RBIs. Their slugging percentage is .389, and they average 4.95 runs per game (6th in MLB), having accumulated 62 doubles while walking 179 times and scoring 213 runs.
Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a WHIP of 1.222 and a collective FIP of 3.63. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 8.80 (383 strikeouts to 153 walks), ranking 8th in MLB for total hits allowed, amounting to 325. The team has permitted 34 home runs and gives up 4.28 runs per 9 innings (13th overall). They’ve surrendered 186 runs this season, maintaining an ERA of 3.75 (163 earned runs).
Pirates relievers have a 34.0% inherited scoring rate, having entered in high-leverage situations 51 times and with runners on 41 occasions. With 45 save opportunities, the Pirates have accumulated 27 holds but have blown 10 saves. With a save rate of 44.4%, they sit 29th in the league, deploying 143 relievers this year.
Across 3,525 innings, the Pirates’ defensive efficiency is recorded at 71.0% (10th in MLB). They have made 30 double plays and have a fielding percentage of .985 (20th in MLB), registering 352 assists, 23 errors, and 1,175 putouts this season.
Braxton Ashcraft holds a career record of 6-6 with a 2.76 ERA, allowing 7.7 hits per 9 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 3.21, having faced 483 batters in his career. Ashcraft has given up 36 earned runs, maintaining a WHIP of 1.175 and a FIP of 2.7. To date, he has allowed 100 hits and collected 122 strikeouts over 117 innings.
Who will dominate tonight’s MLB game with the spread or moneyline?
Prediction: Pick Philadelphia (-196)
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