- Matchup: Virginia Cavaliers vs. SMU Mustangs
- Scheduled Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
- Venue: Moody Coliseum, Dallas, TX
- Broadcast: ESPN+
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The SMU Mustangs (13-4) will face off against the Virginia Cavaliers (15-2) at Moody Coliseum this Saturday.
In their previous outing, the Virginia Cavaliers triumphed over Louisville with a final score of 79-70. The Cavaliers posted a field goal percentage of 39.6% (21 of 53) and sank 14 out of 34 attempts from beyond the arc. At the free throw line, they excelled by converting 23 of 29 shots, resulting in a success rate of 79.3%. They dominated the boards, collecting a total of 42 rebounds, including 12 offensive. Virginia also recorded 15 assists, forced 8 turnovers from the opposition, and achieved 4 steals. Defensively, they held Louisville to 35.8% shooting, allowing 24 of 67 shots to go in. Louisville managed 13 assists and compiled 8 steals. They also secured 33 rebounds (14 offensive, 19 defensive) but didn’t block any shots. Louisville completed 66.7% of their free throw attempts, making 12 out of 18. From three-point range, they converted 10 of their 38 attempts. The Cavaliers committed 22 personal fouls, while Louisville had 21.
Malik Thomas shone in this game, contributing 19 points on 6 of 9 shooting over 25 minutes of play. He also grabbed 5 rebounds and recorded 3 assists, shooting 66.7% from the field.
The Cavaliers enter this matchup with a strong record of 15-2 this season. They average 10.8 turnovers and 19.1 personal fouls per game. Virginia secures 42.1 rebounds per game and has recorded 296 assists this season, ranking 56th in Division 1 basketball. They shoot 37.0% from three-point land (178 of 481) and 69.6% from the free throw line. They average an impressive 84.7 points per game (51st in the country) with a shooting percentage of 47.7%.
Defensively, Virginia forces 11.4 turnovers per game while allowing 19.3 personal fouls. They rank 24th nationally in assists allowed, conceding 185 throughout the season. Opponents shoot 37.9% (382 of 1,009) against them, and the Cavaliers allow an average of 33.0 rebounds per game. They give up only 28.6% shooting from three-point range and are ranked 40th in points allowed per game, with opponents averaging 67.0 points.
In their recent game, the Mustangs achieved a narrow victory against Virginia Tech, winning 77-76. They collected 25 defensive rebounds and 9 offensive boards for a total of 34. The Mustangs turned the ball over 10 times while securing 5 steals. Virginia Tech committed 16 fouls during the game, leading SMU to shoot 23 free throws, of which they made 16 for a 69.6% success rate. From three-point range, SMU converted just 3 of 15 attempts (20.0%). Overall, the Mustangs shot 48.3% from the floor, hitting 29 of 60 shots. On the other hand, Virginia Tech shot 45.9% (28 of 61). Additionally, Virginia Tech finished at 32.1% from beyond the arc (9 of 28) and 61.1% from the free throw line (11 of 18). SMU allowed Virginia Tech to collect a total of 33 rebounds (11 offensive).
Jaden Toombs was a pivotal player for the Mustangs, scoring 23 points in 34 minutes without any assists. He was efficient, making 10 of 12 shots (83.3%) and also contributed 7 rebounds.
The Mustangs now hold a record of 13-4 this year. Offensively, they shoot an impressive 50.1% from the field, ranking 20th nationwide. SMU has accumulated 1,503 points thus far, averaging 88.4 points per game and pulling down 38.6 boards per contest. They distribute 17.9 assists per game (31st in the nation) and average 11.9 turnovers. The Mustangs commit 17.5 personal fouls per game and boast a free throw percentage of 77.2%.
Defensively, SMU struggles against three-point shots, allowing opponents to shoot 31.6% (148 of 468) and giving up 71.5% at the free throw line. They average 15.8 assists allowed and 34.1 rebounds per game, ranking 321st and 161st in Division 1, respectively. The Mustangs rank 273rd in points allowed per game with an average of 77.0, while forcing 13.8 turnovers and allowing opponents to shoot 42.8% from the field (137th nationally).
Which team will take the win against the spread in tonight’s NCAA matchup?
Recommendation: Back Virginia
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