- Matchup: Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres
- Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2026
- Venue: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY
- Broadcast: TNT
- Odds/Point Spread: Canadiens (+110) Sabres (-130)
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In an exciting matchup, the Buffalo Sabres (50-23-9) will face off against the Montreal Canadiens (48-24-10) at KeyBank Center for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The moneyline features the Canadiens at +110 and the Sabres at -130, with a total set at 5.5.
The Montreal Canadiens secured their spot in this series with a narrow 2-1 victory against the Lightning. In that match, Montreal recorded 6 penalty minutes and had 2 power play opportunities, but they were unable to convert any. The Canadiens will need to improve their offensive output, having scored only 2 goals from 9 shots on target in that contest.
Even when both teams are at even strength, the Canadiens have allowed 197 goals while scoring 223 themselves. Their opponents have had 248 power play chances (ranking 8th in the league) and have scored 54 goals during those opportunities. On the offensive end, the Canadiens have netted 279 goals this season (7th overall) while conceding 251. They have attempted 2,156 shots with a shooting percentage of 12.9%. With a total of 106 points, their points percentage stands at .646. Their goaltenders have been faced with 2,283 shots, achieving an overall save percentage of .890. Montreal has earned 242 power play chances, capitalizing on 56 of them for a rate of 23.14%.
In the crease for the Canadiens will be Jakub Dobes. Throughout his career, Dobes has achieved 35 quality starts with a quality start percentage of .614. His save percentage sits at .904 after logging 953 minutes in goal. Dobes has faced 1,627 shots against him and has successfully saved 1,470 of those attempts. He has allowed 157 goals during his career, giving him a goals-against average of 2.75. With a record of 36-14-7, Dobes has been a starter in 57 games and has played in 59 professional matches.
The Buffalo Sabres advanced by defeating the Bruins with a score of 4-1. In that game, Buffalo scored 4 goals on 26 shots and had 4 power play opportunities but failed to convert.
Buffalo has taken 2,307 shots this season (ranked 13th in the league) with a shooting percentage of 12.27%, while their opponents have attempted 2,381 shots. The Sabres boast a penalty kill success rate of 81.90% against 232 power play chances and have a save percentage of 89.9%. They’ve generated 246 power play opportunities, converting at a rate of 19.51%. The Sabres have scored 235 goals at even strength and 48 goals (18th in the league) when on the power play, while allowing a total of 240 goals, split between 198 goals allowed at even strength and 42 while shorthanded. Overall, the Buffalo Sabres have 283 goals and 109 points, resulting in a points percentage of .665.
Guarding the net for Buffalo will be Alex Lyon, who has made 3,670 saves from a total of 4,065 shots faced, yielding a save percentage of .903. Lyon’s career record stands at 71-48-15 over 149 games, with 134 of those being starts, accumulating 6,072 minutes in net. His quality start rate is 55.2%, having achieved 74 quality starts throughout his NHL tenure. Lyon has allowed an average of 2.95 goals per game, with a total of 395 goals against him in his career.
Which team will prevail in tonight’s NHL matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Pick: Back Buffalo (-130)
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