- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians
- Event Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
- Venue: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
- Broadcasting: MLB.TV
- Betting Odds: Cincinnati (+126) Cleveland (-152)
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The Cleveland Guardians (24-21) face off against the Cincinnati Reds (23-21) at Progressive Field this Saturday. The moneyline for this game features Cincinnati at +126 and Cleveland at -152. The over/under is set at 8.5 runs. The starting pitchers for this matchup are expected to be Chris Paddack and Gavin Williams.
This season, the Reds have recorded 63 doubles and hit 58 home runs. Cincinnati is currently slashing .389, with 405 strikeouts and 174 walks this year. They are averaging 4.3 runs per game, ranking them 15th overall in Major League Baseball. With 177 RBIs and 329 hits, their batting average stands at .224 and their on-base percentage is .310.
The Reds’ pitching staff has a K/BB ratio of 1.69 and a WHIP of 1.46. This season, they have allowed 55 home runs and given up a total of 216 runs (25th in the league). Cincinnati’s pitchers have surrendered 374 hits, averaging 8.5 hits per 9 innings, leading to 202 earned runs. Their team ERA is currently 4.61, ranking 27th, with 342 strikeouts. Moreover, the staff has issued 202 walks, with a FIP of 4.87.
This season, Reds pitchers have faced opponents with runners on base 49 times and appeared in 56 high-leverage situations. The bullpen has recorded 28 holds (6th in MLB) and achieved a 57.9% save success rate, having participated in 48 save opportunities. They have converted 11 saves but faltered in 8 out of 19 chances. The relief unit has inherited 66 runners, with 27.3% later scoring. The Reds have utilized 165 relief pitchers throughout the season.
The Cincinnati Reds have accumulated 1,183 putouts, 380 assists, and 18 errors this season, boasting a .989 fielding percentage, ranking them 7th in the league. They have executed 42 double plays and converted 70.4% of balls in play into outs in their 3,549 innings, placing them 14th in professional baseball.
Paddack, with a career record of 32-41, has a FIP of 4.73, having faced 2,587 batters in the majors. He has permitted 622 hits (9.2 hits per 9 innings) with 136 walks. His career ERA stands at 4.80 with 326 earned runs and a WHIP of 1.240. Paddack has pitched for 611 innings, striking out a total of 556 batters.
The Guardians are attaining a team slugging percentage of .365, averaging 4.16 runs per game (21st in MLB). They have secured 72 doubles, drawn 190 walks, and scored 187 runs. Cleveland has hit 42 home runs and accumulated 179 RBIs, with 336 strikeouts (25th in MLB) and 335 hits this season. Their team OBP is .322, with a batting average of .228.
Cleveland’s pitching staff has given up 183 runs this year, with a team ERA of 3.81 (168 earned runs). They’ve allowed 53 home runs and give up 4.15 runs per 9 innings (10th in MLB). Their WHIP stands at 1.272 with a team FIP of 3.99. With a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 9.50 (420 strikeouts to 153 walks), they rank 18th in MLB for total hits conceded, with 352.
The Guardians are performing well in regards to saves, ranking 3rd with a success rate of 78.9%. They’ve used 147 bullpen pitchers during the season, with relievers facing high-leverage situations 52 times and dealing with base runners 44 times. Out of 57 save attempts, they’ve achieved 37 holds with 4 blown saves. In save opportunities, Cleveland’s relievers have been successful 15 times. The inherited scoring percentage from relievers stands at 26.8% out of 71 inherited runners.
In 3,576 innings played, the Guardians have a defensive efficiency of 70.0% (17th in MLB). They’ve turned 34 double plays and maintain a .988 fielding percentage (8th in MLB) with 341 assists, 18 errors, and 1,192 putouts this season.
Williams, throughout his career, has allowed 311 hits while achieving 399 strikeouts over 380 innings. He has given up 151 earned runs, with a WHIP of 1.275 and a FIP of 3.5. Williams features a K/BB ratio of 2.29 and has faced 1,606 opponents in his MLB career, holding a career record of 23-23 with an ERA of 3.57, allowing 7.4 hits per 9 innings.
Who will come out victorious in tonight’s MLB matchup against the spread or moneyline?
Prediction: Bet on Cincinnati (+126)
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