Prediction for Washington Nationals vs New York Mets, 4/28/2026 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

• Matchup: Washington Nationals vs New York Mets
• Date: Tuesday, April 28, 2026
• Venue: Citi Field, Queens, NY
• Broadcast: Sportsnet New York
• Betting Odds/Point Spread: Washington (+120) New York (-144)

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In today’s exciting matchup, the New York Mets (9-19) are set to face off against the Washington Nationals (13-16) at Citi Field. The odds for this game show Washington at +120 and New York at -144, with the total points line established at 8.5. The starting pitchers for the game are projected to be Zack Littell and Clay Holmes.

The Nationals have hit 47 doubles as a team and launched 34 home runs this season. With a slugging percentage of .395, they’ve struck out 244 times while earning 109 walks. Averaging 5.4 runs per game, Washington ranks 3rd in the league. The team boasts 143 RBIs and 245 hits, currently holding a batting average of .243, and have scored 156 runs with an on-base percentage of .325.

So far this season, the Nationals own an ERA of 5.24 (29th in MLB), with their pitching staff striking out 230 batters. They have surrendered 48 home runs and a total of 171 runs (also 29th in the league). With 118 walks issued, their FIP for the season stands at 5.31. With 272 hits allowed (averaging 9.3 per 9 innings) and 153 earned runs, their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 1.95, while their team WHIP sits at 1.48.

The Nationals’ bullpen has recorded a save rate of 37.5%, entering 35 save opportunities. This season, they have achieved 6 saves and blown 10 of their 16 chances. They have inherited 47 base runners, of which 48.9% have crossed home plate. Their pitchers have faced opponents with runners on base 32 times, and they’ve appeared in 33 high-leverage situations. 101 relievers have taken the mound for Washington this season, leading to 15 holds (19th in the league).

This season, the Nationals have a defensive play percentage of 68.5%, converting 2,367 innings played into outs, which ranks them 23rd in the majors. With 789 putouts, 275 assists, and 27 errors, their fielding percentage is currently at .975, placing them 29th in MLB, while they have executed 22 double plays.

On the mound, Littell has pitched 627 innings, achieving 511 strikeouts across his career. His career ERA stands at 4.03 (allowing 281 ERs), with a WHIP of 1.234. He has given up 631 hits (9.1 hits per nine innings) and has issued 143 walks. With a career win-loss record of 34-32, Littell’s FIP is 3.97, having faced 2,631 opposing hitters in the majors.

The Mets have a combined team slugging percentage of .337, averaging just 3.29 runs per contest (30th in MLB). They have hit 38 doubles, drawn 81 walks, and scored a total of 92 runs. New York has also hit 20 home runs this season, securing 86 RBIs while striking out 224 times (22nd in MLB) with 212 total hits. Their current team on-base percentage is .288, and their batting average is .226.

The Mets’ pitching staff has allowed 122 runs this season, maintaining a team ERA of 4.01 (112 earned runs allowed). With 26 home runs permitted, they allow an average of 4.37 runs per 9 innings (ranking 12th in MLB). As a unit, they hold a WHIP of 1.294 and a FIP of 3.76 this season. Their strikeout-to-walk ratio is 9.10 (254 strikeouts against 101 walks), ranking them 14th in MLB for total hits allowed with 224.

However, New York is struggling with a save percentage of 33.3%, utilizing 81 bullpen pitchers this season. Their relievers have entered 35 high-leverage situations and faced runners on base 29 times. With 13 save opportunities, the Mets have managed 7 holds, alongside 4 blown saves. In 6 of those save chances, their relievers have secured only 2 saves, leading to a 40.0% inherited score rate from 40 inherited runners.

So far, in 2,262 innings played, the Mets rank 18th in defensive efficiency at 69.7%. They have achieved 17 double plays and hold a .986 fielding percentage (14th in the majors). With 242 assists, 14 errors, and 754 putouts recorded, the Mets aim to improve.

Throughout his career, Holmes has conceded 457 hits while striking out 508 batters in 533 innings pitched. He has allowed 211 ERs, maintaining a WHIP of 1.287 and a FIP of 3.5. Holmes has a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.22, having faced 2,288 opposing hitters in his MLB career. With a career win-loss record of 38-32, he boasts a 3.56 ERA and allows 7.7 hits per 9 innings.

Who will emerge victorious in tonight’s MLB showdown against the spread or moneyline?

Prediction: Back Washington (+120)